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The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them

Copyright © 2007 Ed BagleyFollowing the first week of college
While betting on sports is only legal infootball action, here are some facts
a few places in the United States, suchthat interested me about Sagarin's
as Las Vegas, millions of office workersfirst-week ratings:
are involved in sports pools every week1) Washington, one of the poor to
now that the football season hasmediocre teams in the country the last
arrived.several years, was rated No. 31 after
When you know that more than $700hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home
million can be bet on one game—theopener.
Super Bowl—in only Las Vegas, then2) Michigan State, another short end of
you understand that billions were betthe stick team for far too long, was
illegally on the Super Bowl last year inrated No. 36 after steamrolling over UAB
the United States and in offshore sports55-18 in its home opener.
books around the world.3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was
Folks in the gaming business know thatrated No. 38 following its upset of
more than a billion dollars is wageredmighty Michigan 34-32 on Michigan's home
on every Monday Night Football gamefield. The win was the biggest upset in
during the season.college football history as no AA team
For those who wager, it may be helpfulhad ever beaten a ranked team.
to put some science on your side whenMichigan was ranked No. 5 by both the AP
you wager, and one of the best places toPoll and Coaches Poll going into the
do that is with the Sagarin Collegegame. Following its horrendous loss,
Football Ratings.Michigan ended up being ranked No. 40 by
Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MITSagarin.
mathematics graduate, these computer4) Wyoming, a small school and never
ratings are for Division I-A (what theamong the nation's top teams, was ranked
NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB)No. 41 by Sagarin following its 23-3
Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what thehome victory over Virginia.
NCAA now calls the Football Championship5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by
(FC) Subdivision) teams.Georgia Tech, was rated No. 57 after the
You will have to forgive the NCAA forloss. Georgia Tech was rated No. 2. The
taking titles that have been used forIrish failed to score a touchdown for
years and are perfectly clear, thenthe first time ever in their home
renaming them and creating confusion inopener.
the process.6) Temple (ranked No. 143 after its
If there is a way for the NCAA to assertopening loss) and Buffalo (ranked No.
its superior power, it does so by making145 after its opening loss) face off in
everything more difficult and confusing,week two. Both teams are among the 7
similar to your United States governmentworst Division I-A teams in the country,
and its IRS tax code which could reducejoining Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke,
a sane person to tears just reading it.Utah State and Florida International.
Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools
numerical measure of a team's strength.and 123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin
A hypothetical victory margin isCollege Football Ratings. The
determined by comparing the rating ofworst-rated A school is Florida
the two teams after adding 2.93 pointsInternational at No. 174 (56 AA teams
to the home team. The home edge willare rated better), and their play
vary during the season.reflects their rating. The worst-rated
Only Division I (both A and AA) areAA school is the No. 242 La Salle
counted for rating and schedule strengthExplorers. La Salle is a Catholic
during the season.university located in Philadelphia.
A diminishing-returns principle existsLa Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus
to prevent teams from building up28-0. Ursinus is not a planet but a real
ratings by running up large victoryliberal arts college in Pennsylvania.
margins against weak teams. Instead, itUrsinus College is not a Division 1
rewards teams that do well against goodschool (which includes the 242 teams
opponents.with La Salle), not a Division II team
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does(which includes another 157 teams), but
not factor in scoring margin. Fora Division III team. Now you can better
Sagarin ratings and more detailedunderstand why La Salle College is
information go to:ranked last among 242 Division I
USA Today, the largest circulationschools.
newspaper in the United States, is theThe first job for La Salle this year
nation's daily newspaper and carries thewill be to score a touchdown, or any
Sagarin College Football Ratings. Thepoints, including a field goal or
ratings are updated following eachtouchback. The Explorers next job will
week's games and published in USA Todaybe to actually win a game. Good luck, La
on Wednesdays.Salle, and God speed.



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