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The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them

Copyright  ©  2007  Ed  BagleyUSA  Today  on  Wednesdays.
While betting on sports is only legal in aFollowing the first week of college football
few places in the United States, such as Lasaction, here are some facts that interested
Vegas, millions of office workers areme  about  Sagarin's  first-week  ratings:
involved in sports pools every week now that
the  football  season  has  arrived.1) Washington, one of the poor to mediocre
teams in the country the last several years,
When you know that more than $700 million canwas rated No. 31 after hammering Syracuse
be bet on one game—the Super42-14  in  its  home  opener.
Bowl—in only Las Vegas, then you
understand that billions were bet illegally2) Michigan State, another short end of the
on the Super Bowl last year in the Unitedstick team for far too long, was rated No. 36
States and in offshore sports books aroundafter steamrolling over UAB 55-18 in its home
the  world.opener.
Folks in the gaming business know that more3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was rated
than a billion dollars is wagered on everyNo. 38 following its upset of mighty Michigan
Monday Night Football game during the season.34-32 on Michigan's home field. The win was
the biggest upset in college football history
For those who wager, it may be helpful to putas  no AA team had ever beaten a ranked team.
some science on your side when you wager, and
one of the best places to do that is with theMichigan was ranked No. 5 by both the AP Poll
Sagarin  College  Football  Ratings.and Coaches Poll going into the game.
Following its horrendous loss, Michigan ended
Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MITup  being  ranked  No.  40  by  Sagarin.
mathematics graduate, these computer ratings
are for Division I-A (what the NCAA now calls4) Wyoming, a small school and never among
the Football Bowl (FB) Subdivision) andthe nation's top teams, was ranked No. 41 by
Division I-AA (what the NCAA now calls theSagarin following its 23-3 home victory over
Football Championship (FC) Subdivision)Virginia.
teams.
5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by Georgia
You will have to forgive the NCAA for takingTech, was rated No. 57 after the loss.
titles that have been used for years and areGeorgia Tech was rated No. 2. The Irish
perfectly clear, then renaming them andfailed to score a touchdown for the first
creating  confusion  in  the  process.time  ever  in  their  home  opener.
If there is a way for the NCAA to assert its6) Temple (ranked No. 143 after its opening
superior power, it does so by makingloss) and Buffalo (ranked No. 145 after its
everything more difficult and confusing,opening loss) face off in week two. Both
similar to your United States government andteams are among the 7 worst Division I-A
its IRS tax code which could reduce a saneteams in the country, joining
person  to  tears  just  reading  it.Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke, Utah State and
Florida  International.
Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical
measure  of  a  team's  strength.7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools and
123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin College
A hypothetical victory margin is determinedFootball Ratings. The worst-rated A school is
by comparing the rating of the two teamsFlorida International at No. 174 (56 AA teams
after adding 2.93 points to the home team.are rated better), and their play reflects
The  home  edge  will vary during the season.their rating. The worst-rated AA school is
the No. 242 La Salle Explorers. La Salle is a
Only Division I (both A and AA) are countedCatholic  university located in Philadelphia.
for rating and schedule strength during the
season.La Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus
28-0. Ursinus is not a planet but a real
A diminishing-returns principle exists toliberal  arts  college  in  Pennsylvania.
prevent teams from building up ratings by
running up large victory margins against weakUrsinus College is not a Division 1 school
teams. Instead, it rewards teams that do well(which includes the 242 teams with La Salle),
against  good  opponents.not a Division II team (which includes
another 157 teams), but a Division III team.
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does notNow you can better understand why La Salle
factor in scoring margin. For Sagarin ratingsCollege is ranked last among 242 Division I
and  more  detailed  information  go  to:schools.
USA Today, the largest circulation newspaperThe first job for La Salle this year will be
in the United States, is the nation's dailyto score a touchdown, or any points,
newspaper and carries the Sagarin Collegeincluding a field goal or touchback. The
Football Ratings. The ratings are updatedExplorers next job will be to actually win a
following each week's games and published ingame. Good luck, La Salle, and God speed.



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