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The Sagarin College Football Ratings: What They Are, How to Read Them and What to Do With Them

Copyright © 2007 Ed Bagley Following the first week of college
While betting on sports is only legal in football action, here are some facts that
a few places in the United States, such interested me about Sagarin's first-week
as Las Vegas, millions of office workers ratings:
are involved in sports pools every week 1) Washington, one of the poor to
now that the football season has arrived. mediocre teams in the country the last
When you know that more than $700 million several years, was rated No. 31 after
can be bet on one game—the Super hammering Syracuse 42-14 in its home
Bowl—in only Las Vegas, then you opener.
understand that billions were bet 2) Michigan State, another short end of
illegally on the Super Bowl last year in the stick team for far too long, was
the United States and in offshore sports rated No. 36 after steamrolling over UAB
books around the world. 55-18 in its home opener.
Folks in the gaming business know that 3) Appalachian State, a AA school, was
more than a billion dollars is wagered on rated No. 38 following its upset of
every Monday Night Football game during mighty Michigan 34-32 on Michigan's home
the season. field. The win was the biggest upset in
For those who wager, it may be helpful to college football history as no AA team
put some science on your side when you had ever beaten a ranked team.
wager, and one of the best places to do Michigan was ranked No. 5 by both the AP
that is with the Sagarin College Football Poll and Coaches Poll going into the
Ratings. game. Following its horrendous loss,
Created by Jeff Sagarin, a 1970 MIT Michigan ended up being ranked No. 40 by
mathematics graduate, these computer Sagarin.
ratings are for Division I-A (what the 4) Wyoming, a small school and never
NCAA now calls the Football Bowl (FB) among the nation's top teams, was ranked
Subdivision) and Division I-AA (what the No. 41 by Sagarin following its 23-3 home
NCAA now calls the Football Championship victory over Virginia.
(FC) Subdivision) teams. 5) Notre Dame, beaten badly (33-3) by
You will have to forgive the NCAA for Georgia Tech, was rated No. 57 after the
taking titles that have been used for loss. Georgia Tech was rated No. 2. The
years and are perfectly clear, then Irish failed to score a touchdown for the
renaming them and creating confusion in first time ever in their home opener.
the process. 6) Temple (ranked No. 143 after its
If there is a way for the NCAA to assert opening loss) and Buffalo (ranked No. 145
its superior power, it does so by making after its opening loss) face off in week
everything more difficult and confusing, two. Both teams are among the 7 worst
similar to your United States government Division I-A teams in the country,
and its IRS tax code which could reduce a joining Louisiana-Monroe, Rice, Duke,
sane person to tears just reading it. Utah State and Florida International.
Anyway, the Sagarin rating is a numerical 7) A total of 242 teams, 119 A schools
measure of a team's strength. and 123 AA schools, make up the Sagarin
A hypothetical victory margin is College Football Ratings. The worst-rated
determined by comparing the rating of the A school is Florida International at No.
two teams after adding 2.93 points to the 174 (56 AA teams are rated better), and
home team. The home edge will vary during their play reflects their rating. The
the season. worst-rated AA school is the No. 242 La
Only Division I (both A and AA) are Salle Explorers. La Salle is a Catholic
counted for rating and schedule strength university located in Philadelphia.
during the season. La Salle lost its home opener to Ursinus
A diminishing-returns principle exists to 28-0. Ursinus is not a planet but a real
prevent teams from building up ratings by liberal arts college in Pennsylvania.
running up large victory margins against Ursinus College is not a Division 1
weak teams. Instead, it rewards teams school (which includes the 242 teams with
that do well against good opponents. La Salle), not a Division II team (which
The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) does includes another 157 teams), but a
not factor in scoring margin. For Sagarin Division III team. Now you can better
ratings and more detailed information go understand why La Salle College is ranked
to: last among 242 Division I schools.
USA Today, the largest circulation The first job for La Salle this year will
newspaper in the United States, is the be to score a touchdown, or any points,
nation's daily newspaper and carries the including a field goal or touchback. The
Sagarin College Football Ratings. The Explorers next job will be to actually
ratings are updated following each week's win a game. Good luck, La Salle, and God
games and published in USA Today on speed.
Wednesdays.




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